Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
